[chat] going one way, people another

Abdhyius

Jacobkosh wrote: »

Abdhyius wrote: »

Jacobkosh wrote: »

Abdhyius wrote: »

Kagera wrote: »

I mean that's you your choice to reject the percentages pants.

But the percentages are likely from researched and informed sources so I have a tendency to side with them.

the percentages have passed through the rather shitty filter of journalism first, though.

No. They haven't.

I'm not siding with pantsb here I think his view here is silly

but just like, "87% risk to get cancer" is a sentence that I think got some bits lopped off along the way.

right, because you don't actually know and half-wit reflexive cynicism is the order of the day

the number wasn't from a journalist. it was from jolie's op-ed. you know, the person who's been researching her risk factors for the last couple of years and based her decision on it?

i'm going to go ahead and say she knows more about it than you do, yo

Graaah. Do you think I'm going like "well in my opinion it should be more like 37%" or whatever? That's not what I am doing.

When pantsb said that it sounded kind of too accurate, then I thought, that's because it seems like that was the TL;DR version.

Elendil

i dreamed i was sexing up a lady who was cheating on her dude

it was kind of hot

Jacobkosh

Elendil wrote: »

i dreamed i was sexing up a lady who was cheating on her dude

it was kind of hot

it is

Dread Pirate Arbuthnot

Jacobkosh wrote: »

Elendil wrote: »

i dreamed i was sexing up a lady who was cheating on her dude

it was kind of hot

it is

ur gross

STATE OF THE ART ROBOT

IcyLiquid wrote: »

evilbob wrote: »

IcyLiquid wrote: »

So it was brought to my attention that someone rolled an entire page full of 1s.
I wonder if @evilbob should be punished in someone way?

bob... you get a saving throw. 1d20. Make it count...

@Icyliquid

Geth roll 1d20

1d20 7 [1d20=7]

Punishment will be cruel, but not cripplingly so. And it will come when you least expect it.

Ominious.

Solomaxwell6

I wanted more info so I googled "angelina jolie's boobs" and my boss yelled at me.

Irond Will

Donkey Kong wrote: »

PantsB wrote: »

I also doubt the ability to forecast cancer %-tiles to that degree of accuracy but that's another thing.

I assume there is a really solid statistical basis for the number. As with all medical statistics, it's not forecasting Jolie specifically, but saying that 87 out of 100 women similar to her in the general population DID develop cancer.

.125 is one of those numbers that kind of suggests maybe it's mathy rather than empirical. like some probability of a combination of genes or something. I have no idea how that would work, but it is one of those numbers.

Kagera

Mim wrote: »

Ludious wrote: »

So a 15 year old boy with homosexual feelings tried to play into heteronormative society while denying his true feelings, something all too uncommon and unfortunate, and he was also a typical asshole 15 year old geek who was snotty about video games

and

you still want him to be cheated on by the love of his life.


What was that about being 15 years old again

A whole lot of other shit happened for me to want karma to get back at him. It wasn't just over some video game.

Of course more happened but isn't about time to move on and forgive instead of hoping for cosmic justice? Maybe he's a better person now.

Henroid

Elendil wrote: »

i dreamed i was sexing up a lady who was cheating on her dude

it was kind of hot

Details please.

Haphazard

evilbob wrote: »

I'm awake now at 3am because I had a sleep paralysis dream where a ghost of some lady who'd died in my house was choking me to death. My neck feels sore.

So, was it a sex dream or not?

And good morning, anyway.

SammyF

Solomaxwell6 wrote: »

I wanted more info so I googled "angelina jolie's boobs" and my boss yelled at me.

"Stop using up all of our bandwidth! This is why we keep copies of Maxim in the reception area!"

Irond Will

Dread Pirate Arbuthnot wrote: »

will is only the world's second biggest fan of angelina jolie

his refusal to get the facial tattoos done knocked him out of the top spot

curse you, octomom!

Solomaxwell6

Irond Will wrote: »

Donkey Kong wrote: »

PantsB wrote: »

I also doubt the ability to forecast cancer %-tiles to that degree of accuracy but that's another thing.

I assume there is a really solid statistical basis for the number. As with all medical statistics, it's not forecasting Jolie specifically, but saying that 87 out of 100 women similar to her in the general population DID develop cancer.

.125 is one of those numbers that kind of suggests maybe it's mathy rather than empirical. like some probability of a combination of genes or something. I have no idea how that would work, but it is one of those numbers.

I assumed someone along the way said 7/8 as an approximation and then that approximation was later changed into a decimal.

Jacobkosh

Irond Will wrote: »

Donkey Kong wrote: »

PantsB wrote: »

I also doubt the ability to forecast cancer %-tiles to that degree of accuracy but that's another thing.

I assume there is a really solid statistical basis for the number. As with all medical statistics, it's not forecasting Jolie specifically, but saying that 87 out of 100 women similar to her in the general population DID develop cancer.

.125 is one of those numbers that kind of suggests maybe it's mathy rather than empirical. like some probability of a combination of genes or something. I have no idea how that would work, but it is one of those numbers.

that was my thought too

spool32

skippydumptruck wrote: »

spool32 wrote: »

I would start out by just replacing the cable between the modem and the wall. That might solve it for you right there. It's probably the shittiest cable the installer could have provided you.

huh

but presumably the cable running through the walls and to the whatever outside are all the same shitty quality?

hopefully not.

Elendil

Solomaxwell6 wrote: »

Irond Will wrote: »

Donkey Kong wrote: »

PantsB wrote: »

I also doubt the ability to forecast cancer %-tiles to that degree of accuracy but that's another thing.

I assume there is a really solid statistical basis for the number. As with all medical statistics, it's not forecasting Jolie specifically, but saying that 87 out of 100 women similar to her in the general population DID develop cancer.

.125 is one of those numbers that kind of suggests maybe it's mathy rather than empirical. like some probability of a combination of genes or something. I have no idea how that would work, but it is one of those numbers.

I assumed someone along the way said 7/8 as an approximation and then that approximation was later changed into a decimal.

shouldn't it be 88% then

zagdrob

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1180265/

Per the NIH: Families ascertained through a breast cancer case were subdivided further by age at diagnosis of the index case. The breast and ovarian cancer risk estimates were higher in the families of the early-onset index cases, although only the breast cancer effect was significant (table 5) (breast cancer RR = 2.2 [95% CI 1.4–3.3]; ovarian cancer RR = 1.8 [95% CI 0.82–4.0]). On the basis of this analysis, the breast cancer risk for BRCA1-mutation carriers for families ascertained through early-onset index cases was estimated to be 87% (95% CI 67%–95%) by age 70 years, and the ovarian cancer risk was estimated to be 51% (95% CI 9.1%–73%), compared to 61% (41%–74%) and 32% (11%–49%) for families ascertained through an older index case patient. The risk estimates for older index case patients with breast cancer were comparable to those for ovarian cancer index case patients (54% and 36%).

You can also take from this that Jolie has a 50/50 chance of contracting ovarian cancer by the age of 70.

What a shitty thing to know and have to deal with. She made what seems to be a very informed choice...hopefully it was for the best, and I can't imagine being in her position.

Irond Will

Abdhyius wrote: »

Sir Landshark wrote: »

Abdhyius wrote: »

how long does aioli last in the fridge?

until you eat it

so it should still be perfect come friday?

oh yeah

it's basically mayonnaise plus, since garlic has antimicrobial qualities.

now, the recipe you used seemed to call for a lot more egg yolk than i generally use (the egg protein is basically an emulsicant and you don't need much of it) and maybe that would change things.

Abdhyius

it's weird how many of you are so violently opposed to the idea that if you know that it's way more likely than not that you're going to get cancer then it's crazy to take some drastic measures to avoid that

like, there's being a hypochondriac and constantly worried you're going to die, and then there's just ignoring everything.

TTODewback

My buddy is having surgery today to fix his twin-curse kidneys.
He's only put it off for like 20 years.
Why do twins have cursed kidneys anyways?

Solomaxwell6

Elendil wrote: »

Solomaxwell6 wrote: »

Irond Will wrote: »

Donkey Kong wrote: »

PantsB wrote: »

I also doubt the ability to forecast cancer %-tiles to that degree of accuracy but that's another thing.

I assume there is a really solid statistical basis for the number. As with all medical statistics, it's not forecasting Jolie specifically, but saying that 87 out of 100 women similar to her in the general population DID develop cancer.

.125 is one of those numbers that kind of suggests maybe it's mathy rather than empirical. like some probability of a combination of genes or something. I have no idea how that would work, but it is one of those numbers.

I assumed someone along the way said 7/8 as an approximation and then that approximation was later changed into a decimal.

shouldn't it be 88% then

No, 87% is just 87.5% truncated rather than rounded.

Jacobkosh

wait a minute

has anyone ever seen Will and Billy Bob Thornton in the same place at the same time

????

Sarksus

After the conversation the other night about how the world is terrible I have been looking up some stats. Apparently only 57 million people die every year? I mean, that's a lot of people, but out of 7 billion people that's not too bad. 1.29 billion people live in poverty. That's a lot Apparently 920 million people are malnourished.

And then there are other things, like war and healthcare, and Republicans!

It doesn't feel as hopeless but man, I wish shit was better. I need books about poverty and hunger that aren't depressing.

Abdhyius

Irond Will wrote: »

Abdhyius wrote: »

Sir Landshark wrote: »

Abdhyius wrote: »

how long does aioli last in the fridge?

until you eat it

so it should still be perfect come friday?

oh yeah

it's basically mayonnaise plus, since garlic has antimicrobial qualities.

now, the recipe you used seemed to call for a lot more egg yolk than i generally use (the egg protein is basically an emulsicant and you don't need much of it) and maybe that would change things.

It did see like a lot to me too. I think I'll use a little less.

I was asking because I really felt like making the aioli today.

EriktheVikingGamer

kaleedity wrote: »

Tiger Burning wrote: »

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-carolina-may-ban-tesla-sales-2013-5

North Carolina could ban Tesla from selling its cars if a bill designed to eliminate "unfair competition" becomes law.

'lectric cars are witchcraft.

I'd be surprised if only NC did this

Oil industry is heavily subsidized by the government but the Electric cars are the ones who are committing unfair competition?

Does not compute.

Shivahn

Sarksus wrote: »

I need books about poverty and hunger that aren't depressing.

Have you considered maybe trying a different topic for that.

ronya

convergence of this MLE is kinda bad

the estimates are all correct within the first couple of digits

but the standard errors are WAY off

Elendil

Sarksus wrote: »

I need books about poverty and hunger that aren't depressing.

i...

i don't think you're gonna find one?

Mim

Kagera wrote: »

Mim wrote: »

Ludious wrote: »

So a 15 year old boy with homosexual feelings tried to play into heteronormative society while denying his true feelings, something all too uncommon and unfortunate, and he was also a typical asshole 15 year old geek who was snotty about video games

and

you still want him to be cheated on by the love of his life.


What was that about being 15 years old again

A whole lot of other shit happened for me to want karma to get back at him. It wasn't just over some video game.

Of course more happened but isn't about time to move on and forgive instead of hoping for cosmic justice? Maybe he's a better person now.

I can ~forgive~ him for the video game comment but everything else he did is a no-go.

and no, I'm not just talking about him being in love with someone else while dating me, though if it was a guy or a girl, I would've rather appreciated it if he just hadn't dated me at all.

Abdhyius

Sarksus wrote: »

After the conversation the other night about how the world is terrible I have been looking up some stats. Apparently only 57 million people die every year? I mean, that's a lot of people, but out of 7 billion people that's not too bad. 1.29 billion people live in poverty. That's a lot Apparently 920 million people are malnourished.

And then there are other things, like war and healthcare, and Republicans!

It doesn't feel as hopeless but man, I wish shit was better. I need books about poverty and hunger that aren't depressing.

how about a book not about poverty and hunger, man

Hamurabi

Now that my friend turned me onto justifying (as in, the typesetting function) all my academic longform writing... it slightly irks me when I find other longform writing that isn't justified.

Irond Will

TTODewback wrote: »

My buddy is having surgery today to fix his twin-curse kidneys.
He's only put it off for like 20 years.
Why do twins have cursed kidneys anyways?

they have to split their character points two ways

kidneys are just a common dump stat

Abdhyius

Mim wrote: »

Kagera wrote: »

Mim wrote: »

Ludious wrote: »

So a 15 year old boy with homosexual feelings tried to play into heteronormative society while denying his true feelings, something all too uncommon and unfortunate, and he was also a typical asshole 15 year old geek who was snotty about video games

and

you still want him to be cheated on by the love of his life.


What was that about being 15 years old again

A whole lot of other shit happened for me to want karma to get back at him. It wasn't just over some video game.

Of course more happened but isn't about time to move on and forgive instead of hoping for cosmic justice? Maybe he's a better person now.

I can ~forgive~ him for the video game comment but everything he did is a no-go.

he was 15.

Donkey Kong

Irond Will wrote: »

Donkey Kong wrote: »

PantsB wrote: »

I also doubt the ability to forecast cancer %-tiles to that degree of accuracy but that's another thing.

I assume there is a really solid statistical basis for the number. As with all medical statistics, it's not forecasting Jolie specifically, but saying that 87 out of 100 women similar to her in the general population DID develop cancer.

.125 is one of those numbers that kind of suggests maybe it's mathy rather than empirical. like some probability of a combination of genes or something. I have no idea how that would work, but it is one of those numbers.

Generally for this stuff it's both. They take a huge set of data where quantifiable risk factors are mixed with outcomes, calculate a likelihood function using some pattern recognition magic, and crunch the numbers.

Kagera

Abdhyius wrote: »

it's weird how many of you are so violently opposed to the idea that if you know that it's way more likely than not that you're going to get cancer then it's crazy to take some drastic measures to avoid that

like, there's being a hypochondriac and constantly worried you're going to die, and then there's just ignoring everything.

I'm going to respond to you but I'm too busy flogging this kitten right now.

seriously it doesn't seem all that drastic to me oh no she lost some fatty tissue and has to take some hormones she should have jus lived with the risk.

TehSloth

Sarksus wrote: »

After the conversation the other night about how the world is terrible I have been looking up some stats. Apparently only 57 million people die every year? I mean, that's a lot of people, but out of 7 billion people that's not too bad. 1.29 billion people live in poverty. That's a lot Apparently 920 million people are malnourished.

And then there are other things, like war and healthcare, and Republicans!

It doesn't feel as hopeless but man, I wish shit was better. I need books about poverty and hunger that aren't depressing.

You should watch more ViceTV, should suck all that hope from your bones.

Hey guys, what's today's episode about.... oh... child suicide bombers and the prevalence of political assassinations in the phillipines.... thanks.

Irond Will

Jacobkosh wrote: »

wait a minute

has anyone ever seen Will and Billy Bob Thornton in the same place at the same time

????

look

i just wanted the french fried taters

Irond Will

ayup

kaleedity

EriktheVikingGamer wrote: »

kaleedity wrote: »

Tiger Burning wrote: »

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-carolina-may-ban-tesla-sales-2013-5

North Carolina could ban Tesla from selling its cars if a bill designed to eliminate "unfair competition" becomes law.

'lectric cars are witchcraft.

I'd be surprised if only NC did this

Oil industry is heavily subsidized by the government but the Electric cars are the ones who are committing unfair competition?

Does not compute.

it is longstanding american tradition for entrenched industries to fight new technologies that would replace them with all of their might

Sarksus

No I want books about the progress we have made in eliminating poverty and hunger and how much better things are now compared to awhile ago.